1. HOW TO (ACTUALLY) THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX
Machine learning and decision making
'You can't code people, Millie. That's basically impossible.'
I was eleven, and arguing with my older sister. 'Then how do we all think?'
It was something I knew instinctively then, but would only come to understand properly years later: the way we think as humans is not so different from how a computer program operates. Every one of you reading this is currently processing thoughts. Just like a computer algorithm, we ingest and respond to data—instructions, information and external stimuli. We sort that data, using it to make conscious and unconscious decisions. And we categorize it for later use, like directories within a computer, stored in order of priority. The human mind is an extraordinary processing machine, one whose awesome power is the distinguishing feature of our species.
We are all carrying a supercomputer around in our heads. But despite that, we get tripped up over everyday decisions. (Who hasn't agonized over what outfit to wear, how to phrase an email or what to have for lunch that day?) We say we don't know what to think, or that we are overwhelmed by the information and choices surrounding us.
That shouldn't really be the case when we have a machine as powerful as the brain at our disposal. If we want to improve how we make decisions, we need to make better use of the organ dedicated to doing just that.
Machines may be a poor substitute for the human brain—lacking its creativity, adaptability and emotional lens—but they can teach us a lot about how to think and make decisions more effectively. By studying the science of machine learning, we can understand the different ways to process information, and fine-tune our approach to decision making.
There are many different things computers can teach us about how to make decisions, which I will explore in this chapter. But there is also a singular, counter-intuitive lesson. To be better decision makers, we don't need to be more organized, structured or focused in how we approach and interpret information. You might expect machine learning to push us in that direction, but in fact the opposite is true. As I will explain, algorithms excel by their ability to be unstructured, to thrive amid complexity and randomness and to respond effectively to changes in circumstance. By contrast, ironically, it is we humans who tend to seek conformity and straightforward patterns in our thinking, hiding away from the complex realities which machines simply approach as another part of the overall data set.
We need some of that clear-sightedness, and a greater willingness to think in more complex ways about things that can never be simple or straightforward. It's time to admit that your computer thinks outside the box more readily than you do. But there's good news too: it can also teach us how to do the same.
Machine learning: the basics
Machine learning is a concept you may have heard of in connection with another two words that get talked about a lot—artificial intelligence (AI). This often gets presented as the next big sci-fi nightmare. But it is merely a drop in the ocean of the most powerful computer known to humanity, the one that sits inside your head. The brain's capacity for conscious thought, intuition and imagination sets it apart from any computer program that has yet been engineered. An algorithm is incredibly powerful in its ability to crunch huge volumes of data and identify the trends and patterns it is programmed to find. But it is also painfully limited.
Machine learning is a branch of AI. As a concept it is simple: you feed large amounts of data into an algorithm, which can learn or detect patterns and then apply these to any new information it encounters. In theory, the more data you input, the better able your algorithm is to understand and interpret equivalent situations it is presented with in the future.
Machine learning is what allows a computer to tell the difference between a cat and a dog, study the nature of diseases or estimate how much energy a household (and indeed the entire National Grid) is going to require in a given period. Not to mention its achievements in outsmarting professional chess and Go players at their own game.
These algorithms are all around us, processing unreal amounts of data to determine everything from what film Netflix will recommend to you next, to when your bank decides you have probably been defrauded, and which emails are destined for your junk folder.
Although they pale in insignificance to the human brain, these more basic computer programs also have something to teach us about how to use our mental computers more effectively. To understand how, let's look at the two most common techniques in machine learning: supervised and unsupervised.